Very well put sir. Would be interesting to see what comments this garners if published on FB.
There is only one point at from a preservative society we will be safe to reopen from the lockdown, the successful implementation and administration of a vaccine.
To put this into context from a scientific point of view, the common cold is of the same type (corona virus (RNA virus)). Scientists have been looking for a vaccine against the common cold since the 80s, to no avail.
So, there may be some benefit in "herd immunity" but what does this mean? We have managed complete herd immunity in 2 ways, 1 - vaccination, smallpox being the first and measles being a more recent example. However measles is also an example of where successful herd immunity has been curtailed and reversed by social media hearsay in the MMR jab causing autism. (FYI, autism has been around in pretty much the same volume for millennia, its just only recently we have started diagnosing with a name any social difficulty, no matter how small, as somewhere on the "spectrum" (aren't we all, after all, that is how a spectrum works).) or 2 - Everybody gets it and those that can deal with it at the time survive, chickenpox is a good example of this, where there is not a vaccine required or administered as the fatality rate, yes people die from chicken pox (20-25 people per year in the UK), is so low.
Coronaviruses where effective (there are many which are harmless) are awful and the effects truly harrowing, however there is very little at this time science can do to prevent them spreading. Isolation is merely a slowing of the spread, allowing those who do become infected at this reduced rate to be able to obtain the necessary attention and treatment in order that they may survive, be immune, and increase the chance of reaching herd immunity where the odds of a vaccine are so slim (we have yet to discover one for MERS or SARS or the common cold (all coronaviruses)). The sad thing is that the NHS is unable to cope today even with this reduced number of cases on top of other pressures, and even more sad that a number of people of all backgrounds and age groups will lose their lives.
It is still important, however, to contextualise this loss and pain experienced. Every year, globally, 500,000 to 600,000 people's live are lost to influenza, flu, I'm sure you have all had it at one time or another. Whilst there is a "flu jab" available this is not a guaranteed vaccine, but a best guess effort as to the mutation of the virus that will likely materialise, and at worst a there-or-there-abouts quasi immunity to the flu virus flying around that particular winter. For context, we are currently at around 50,000 corona virus deaths. Whist this is a loss, we must be rational in our response.
The measures that we are under today are perfect for reducing a virus spread where a vaccine horizon is predicted. "Stay apart until it can be made safe" is a great strategy, however this comes with many pitfalls as soon as you add an indefinite time span to this. The release, or "exit strategy" as it is coined in the media, of the lockdown is extremely important. Release it too fast, without a vaccine program available, and you risk flooding the heath systems and succeed only in moving the impact further down the road, hopefully with a well prepared health service to deal with it. Release it too slow and you end up in another recession, with multiple small, medium and even large businesses failing, quantitive easing only being able to go so far and plunging the country into a deep recession for an unpredictable period which is arguably equally damaging to the health of the nation and the global population.
Thus we are in an extremely difficult situation, and I would urge everybody to follow the guidance of social distancing, whilst attempting to maintain your economic, professional and personal lives as close as is possible to before this outbreak commenced.
Personally, I am lucky enough to have a job which enables me to work from home pretty much business as usual, however I feel I am in a minority, and after everything that has happened since June 2016 i really feel for anyone who has had to live that uncertainty followed immediately by a much more real, and uncertain threat.
Stay safe out there VXers. Hopefully a clear path comes soon
