1815 replies to this topic

[jonnyboy]

PS on the issue of changing minds I think you are right not that many will. I think if anything there may be a slightly increased turnout as those remainers that didn't think their vote would be needed will come out and vote. If there is a second vote it's surely going to be to remain but then we assumed that last time.

A look back at the exact argument made for the second vote if the first one was tight made by none other than our good friend Mr Farage:

https://www.google.c...rendum-36306681

[oblomov]

Who has changed their mind on here?

 

ME.
 

[hairy]

[ianrm]

Some great points jonnyboy. I voted remain and would do again. 

 

I appreciate people had the right to vote for what they wanted and we have to go with the result as we are a democracy. 

 

It just irks me that people voted to leave without knowing what it would actually mean for the country and what an absolute F*ck up it would turn out to be.

 

We must be a complete laughing stock to the rest of the world. 

[Jetpilot]

Since triggering article 50, the economy has risen, the average wage has risen and unemployment shrunk (which incidentally is HALF of the eurozone average), whilst Germany and Frances economy are significantly down, they must be pi**ing themselves we got it so wrong, what a proper f*ck up. 

 

 

 

 

 

[jonnyboy]

Well that's soundbites again. The economy has "risen" but every quarter the initial widely reported figures are quietly revised down so we are only just in a rising economy and are actually lucky to not be in recession at the moment. Maybe the powers that be massage these numbers which would make sense during the Brexit negotiations so as to not weaken our position. 

 

Unemployment we are the masters of hiding unemployment in this country! Zero hours contracts/underemployment/too many thickos at uni it's all hiding the real story as you can't have zero hours in most of Europe. Yes Italy have huge issues as do Spain but they have their backs covered always because.......they are part of the EU! Poland just reported 5% growth. Turning Poland round is just what the EU is about. Our kids might be going over there to do plumbing. 

 

Times are tough at the moment obviously I work in an industry that is one of the early warning systems and it's quiet out there. The bigger guys doing the premium stuff are struggling just really still drunk on cheap easy credit. 

 

A less widely reported issue that I hear from European colleagues is that Brexit is directly hurting the EU countries as well. General uncertainty is probably affecting the EU more than it is us right at this moment but the outlook is not good. Lot's of problems in our country at the moment. Ironically I personally think the Brexit vote in itself was for many a bit of a protest vote against the Government and the difficulties that lower earners face in maintaining a respectable standard of living.  Blame it on the immigrants rather than sticking in some sensible measures to safeguard working families. 

 

Back briefly to the point on the triggering of A50 it was a genuine surprise to me how good business was after that. Nobody predicted it and I've never really heard a satisfactory explanation for it. Maybe the economy is just random. I certainly don;t go in for all this end of days stuff and it's widely expected any dip we are currently experiencing certainly in our sector should be matched with a rebound when Brexit is resolved. Still cheap money to be had. 

Edited by jonnyboy, 24 January 2019 - 08:01 AM.

[Jetpilot]

Well its not soundbites (unlike project fear), its facts but you can dissect it anyway you see fit to suit your opinion, my point was more in relation to the hysteria of being a "laughing stock" and "what an absolute f8ck up it would be" used in the present tense. 

 

No one actually knows the final verdict or consequences, so shall we we get or not get to that bit first before everyone starts saying we told you so, it certainly hasnt gone the way George Osbourne said it would on triggering article 50, we would be in immediate recession, loss of 100k's of jobs and loads of other nonsense. Can we not perpetuate any more myths and just deal in some facts.

[SteveA]

I personally think the Brexit vote in itself was for many a bit of a protest vote against the Government and the difficulties that lower earners face in maintaining a respectable standard of living.  Blame it on the immigrants rather than sticking in some sensible measures to safeguard working families. 

 

100% Agree and it's the same the world over, when times are tight pick an easy scapegoat and blame them. I personally think a lot of it rests on Camerons shoulders, he and Osbourne cut and cut and cut which made things financially tight for a lot of people and made him extremely unpopular. Add to that his refusal to campaign for remain and his comments that people wouldn't be stupid enough to vote leave made it easy pickings for the leave campaign. I wonder if May had been PM whether we would even be in the position we are now?

Edited by SteveA, 24 January 2019 - 09:35 AM.

[PaulCP]

The only reason that the U.K. is the laughing stock of the EU is nothing to do with the referendum.

It’s purely down to the mess and uncertainty that Parliament has created as a result of Tory MPs and Corbyn chasing their own personal agendas.

They are too blind to see that they have created a situation which has given the EU negotiators the upper hand

[SteveA]

I heard an excellent quote the other day "MP's know exactly what needs to be done, they just don't know how to get re-elected after doing it"

 

It has been an absolute bun fight from day one, if the tories had got themselves together and worked towards the common goal instead for infighting for power I think we would be in a significantly better position now. Perhaps we would also have a deal on the table that would be acceptable to the majority.

[jonnyboy]

Well its not soundbites (unlike project fear), its facts but you can dissect it anyway you see fit to suit your opinion, my point was more in relation to the hysteria of being a "laughing stock" and "what an absolute f8ck up it would be" used in the present tense. 

 

No one actually knows the final verdict or consequences, so shall we we get or not get to that bit first before everyone starts saying we told you so, it certainly hasnt gone the way George Osbourne said it would on triggering article 50, we would be in immediate recession, loss of 100k's of jobs and loads of other nonsense. Can we not perpetuate any more myths and just deal in some facts.

 

I would certainly agree that project fear was the equivalent of Boris' bus and they were proven wrong immediately after the vote of course. Both sides were at it understandably doing all the tricks to get their result. Of course all of it from both sides has resulted in huge damage to public trust and confidence in Politicians of all sides. We have the weakest opposition to the weakest Government in generations. The remain side are hammering the no deal thing which I'm fed up of hearing because again taking a bit of time out to fully think about what no agreement would mean....there is no such thing as no deal because on the 1st of April lots of dealing would begin in earnest. Moving goods and people around a deal would be done at 12.01 on the 1st then there would be an ongoing period of negotiating. I certainly can't get into the apocalyptic talk the world just isn't like that and it's human nature to find a solution usually at the last moment. The EU will come up with something on the backstop possibly. They need their divorce bill money more than we need a deal. 

 

I'm not quite sure the UK is the laughing stock of anyone though. We are the world's 4th/5th richest country and still command respect overseas. I think our friends in Europe and across the world are more perplexed with us than anything. We come out for the financial crash just about intact in fact probably have dealt with it better than most Western countries. Economy has it's issues but is fundamentally doing quite well...and we voluntarily step out of one of the largest trading blocs in the world and throw ourselves into a situation that even the leave side admit will only ever be worse than the equivalent of staying in. I mean it's pretty dumb really. Maybe we can overturn it on a second vote I think that would be more democratic than the Government pushing through a deal that a majority of the public wouldn't be happy with. If we end up in a customs union I'd be pissed off if I was a leave voter because that isn't leaving and I'd also be pissed off as a remain voter because we wouldn't be getting the full benefits of the EU but would be paying in and not able to have a say on the rules handed to us like the situation Norway are in. Also a customs union will come with free movement making the whole thing totally pointless for leave and remain voters alike. 

 

Top option on the ballot paper would be "wake up and pretend it was all a bad dream"  

[jonnyboy]

I heard an excellent quote the other day "MP's know exactly what needs to be done, they just don't know how to get re-elected after doing it"

 

It has been an absolute bun fight from day one, if the tories had got themselves together and worked towards the common goal instead for infighting for power I think we would be in a significantly better position now. Perhaps we would also have a deal on the table that would be acceptable to the majority.

 

This exactly and precisely sums up why we are in the position we are in right now. 

[C8RKH]

Lies were told by both sides

Absolutely false.

There are multiple investigations, some criminal into Vote Leave, BeLeave, LeaveEU and Arron Banks.

None into Remain.

Because they lost. So no one on the otger side cares so much. Don't be so dumb 😂🤣😂🤣

Edited by C8RKH, 25 January 2019 - 12:23 PM.

[JG]

Since triggering article 50, the economy has risen, the average wage has risen and unemployment shrunk (which incidentally is HALF of the eurozone average), whilst Germany and Frances economy are significantly down, they must be pi**ing themselves we got it so wrong, what a proper f*ck up. 

 

Yes, and we are still in Europe

[Jetpilot]

Hardly the immediate recession and half a million job losses (best case scenario) that was predicated on triggering of article 50 though is it, about the only relevance of project fear that was vaguely accurate was a a drop in the £, i guess it didnt take a genius to work that one out though 

 

Believe what you want, suddenly everyone seems to be economic experts and goalposts keep moving, if things were so bad we would be seeing that influence now rather than the info above, i presume on the 29th, pending deal or no deal, all the above will all change then?

[sford]

It's not the leaving or staying that is causing changes though. The prospect of change will be having the greatest affect but things will return to normal, once normal has been established. The longer the process is drawn out, the more damage is done. Once the dust settles I'm sure things will return to BAU. 

Edited by sford, 25 January 2019 - 04:01 PM.

[JG]

Hardly the immediate recession and half a million job losses (best case scenario) that was predicated on triggering of article 50 though is it, about the only relevance of project fear that was vaguely accurate was a a drop in the £, i guess it didnt take a genius to work that one out though 

 

Believe what you want, suddenly everyone seems to be economic experts and goalposts keep moving, if things were so bad we would be seeing that influence now rather than the info above, i presume on the 29th, pending deal or no deal, all the above will all change then?

 

That's because the markets don't believe we are leaving without a deal on the 29th.

[christhegasman]

I think there is certainly a strong case for a referendum. Couple of initial points for those against the idea...We voted to go into Europe. Granted it was in the 70s but you could argue that having the EU referendum undid the "democratic rights" of those that voted in the 70s. The second point is that if/when there is a second vote you are quite free to go out and vote leave again nobody is taking your vote away but the fact is nobody was clear what a bloody mess it would turn out.

I think it would be fair not to split options for leave voters so in effect you would have on the ballot:

Remain
Leave on WTC terms
May's deal or a variant of bokted to an article 50 extension

Now people that voted leave wanted to leave the EU and one would assume the customs union as we can then go around the world shaking hands on all of these brilliant trade deals that await us (in exchange for work visas for just different foreign folk). However there is a lot of talk about staying within the customs union which I think a lot of people don't quite understand means that we can't then negotiate trade deals with other countries.

Another thing that I think people don't actually understand properly because as with the whole of the Brexit sh*t show people tend to latch onto a soundbite or something a floppy haired idiot put on a bus and this may be a shocker: Theresa may is 10% CORRECT in what she has done. It's not a very popular opinion as Westminster has become more about power play and less about the public but Theresa May DID negotiate the best possible deal on Brexit. As she correctly said over and over she delivered a deal that got us out of the customs union and allowed us to take control of our borders setting things up rather nicely to have some ongoing trading relationship. If it wasn't for that pesky bit of our land in Ireland! Gah!

Now correct me of I'm wrong here but I don't think anyone at all spotted the NI issue in the run up to the first vote.

So because of NI:

You have to have a customs union = we are still essentially in the EU and therefore unable to negotiate our own trade deals which if you weren't just racist that was probably one of the legitimate reasons people thought they were voting for.

You don't have a customs union = If you don't have a customs union you MUST have a hard border...or you let the TRADE negotiations take care of that. This is the crux of May's deal.

It's a total catch 22 but May's deal for those of us that actually have taken time to understand it was that NI is resolved over a period (unspecified) after the March deadline with this backstop being a never realistically to be used legal standpoint. It was a bit of legal jargon that a couple of people leapt on that doesn't really mean very much.

I genuinely think a lot of the MPs in Westminster don't fully understand the Brexit deal it's been hijacked by tribalism. You may guess I'm not a Tory voter but Theresa May is the most honest person in that chamber. She IS right and at the moment bless her she's one of only a minority of people that can see it. What would basically happen with NI is that after exit we can then negotiate the TRADE deal we just have free trade and it removes the need for a border in NI. I would guess then people from the EU would have the automatic right to enter the jurisdiction of NI but would have no rights to work or to travel onto the mainland etc. It's really a quite simple process in the end and the sweet irony is that it's the Brexiteers fighting for the keys for number 10 that killed Brexit.

We won't be leaving in March and hopefully following a second vote not at all!

But the key problem is that people are confusing the trade part of the deal which we can't overtly talk about with them until we leave the EU and the withdrawal framework agreement. There's nothing to prevent uis going back and post negotiating half of the agreement but we have missed the chance to get the ball rolling now.

my only fault with that is I was one that voted to join the common market in the 70s not the United States if Europe which it has grown into ? Unlike Sime members we did not get a vote when things changed from a trading system to a dictatorship

[kipper]

Has anybody noticed the striking resemblance between Sabine Wayland
The Deputy Chief Negotiator for the EU and Velma
from Scooby-Doo??

[christhegasman]

Has anybody noticed the striking resemblance between Sabine Wayland
The Deputy Chief Negotiator for the EU and Velma
from Scooby-Doo??

😂