78 replies to this topic

[Tony H]

Looks like the bbc read this thread...
https://www.bbc.co.u...siness-44609003

 

During the referendum results show on the BBC this guy suggested there would be a mass panic and the cash machines would run out of money. Total thicko.

[jonnyboy]

I'm sure many people had noble intentions at the time of the vote but going by my facebook feed there were a few people that voted for Brexit because they don't like Eastern European people it was that simple for a lot especially in working class areas like ours. 

 

Anyway the vote was narrowly won and we are beginning the process of paying for it. If us lefty remainer types are wrong in a year or two you guys can buy the drinks  

 

The funny thing is anecdotally from around this area (rich in eastern European folk) an unprecedented amount of them are leaving the UK feeling that they can make a better living back in Poland/Germany. Which is the whole point of the EU. Improve the whole continent and migration would naturally fall back as countries like Poland are dragged up to come closer to the standards we enjoy. They sure didn't get everything right but I hope we come up with the almost inevitable half in half out arrangement but with enough for the flag wavers to be happy with. 

 

 

[C8RKH]

The funny thing is anecdotally from around this area (rich in eastern European folk) an unprecedented amount of them are leaving the UK feeling that they can make a better living back in Poland/Germany. Which is the whole point of the EU. Improve the whole continent and migration would naturally fall back as countries like Poland are dragged up to come closer to the standards we enjoy. They sure didn't get everything right but I hope we come up with the almost inevitable half in half out arrangement but with enough for the flag wavers to be happy with. 

 

Actually jonnyboy if you look back into the statistics over the past 5 years I believe you will find that the trend in poles going back to poland was already well established BEFORE Brexit. many of them came over here to trade their expertise and work ethic for cash, saved that cash and are now going back to a much better life in Poland as the polish economy and job prospects have improved. Funny how it never gets reported like that though and it is not all about farm workers / fruit pickers. Many of the Poles who came over where highly skilled workers and better qualified, and with a better work ethic, than their Uk counterparts. This was their chance to make some serious money and set themselves and their families up and good for them for taking the chance and making it work.

 

I was a Brexit voter, but immigration was never the issue for me (oddly enough as apparently I am xenophobic - yes, that f@ckwitted comment on an early post did wrankle!). Neither was reclaiming our sovereignty per se.  The issue for me was that I have been increasingly weary of the "federal" intent of the non elected policy makers in Brussels. i am very proud to be British and think Britain is a great place to live. It's is still one of the most tolerant countries in the EU for immigrants and we welcome people from all faiths, creeds, etc. Well those of us with half a brain do, you cannot legislate for a few racial bigots and zealots and you will always find these around.

 

The point was raised before about why the EU let all those other countries in who could take and not give.  The reason for me was simple, it was part of balancing the power of the traditional industrial houses of the North (UK, Germany, France, etc) and eroding their veto's, along with the widening of the "Federal" intent. Now, I might be bonkers here, but i do think we need to be very afraid of non-elected policy makers in Brussels and their drive towards a single European Federal State with a European Army under the control of non-elected representatives in Brussels. My view was we were potentially sleep walking into a "takeover" of Europe some many years down the line.  Alarmist?  maybe. Credible? maybe. Who knows.

 

Of course the EU is punishing us over leaving. All the rhetoric, the leaking of private meetings, the bad mouthing threat throwing press interviews are all coming from the EU.  The UK has been quite restrained really if you take a cold hard look at it.  Italy could be on the brink. France is not secure. Even Merkel is under pressure.  There really is no certainty that the EU, in its current guise will last forever. Old prejudices will always resurface and we have had an unprecedented period of peace in Europe, not all of that down to the EU.

 

The US is increasingly getting fed up with Europe and for "paying for the defence of Europe".  I kinda get that to be honest. 

 

Brexit was never going to be easy. it was never going to be great. But the fact is that i cannot help but think that if Vince Cable and the other remainers could put as much effort into making Brexit  success, as they are seemingly putting in to undermine it, then maybe, just maybe, we'd be in a different position just now. The fact is that Politicians are elected to carry out the will of the people. They seem to have forgotten this with Brexit. A divided and infighting country will never win a grand negotiation.

 

Time to accept the decision and get behind it with all our efforts to make it a success. otherwise, like it or not, we'll argue ourselves into failure and despair. That is just the reality of the situation and no amount of moaning will change it.

[Madmitch]

A few more thoughts to muddy the waters!

 

We were living in France when the € was launched, it came in at €1.68 to £1.  Almost instantly it fell to 1.65 and has continued to fall slowly ever since, 2009/10 it was around 1.45, 2011 - 2014 it was between 1.25 and 1.15, 2015 it was near to parity, by 2016/17 it was around 1.10 and today it is fractionally higher.  At the launch of the € it was said that the £ was overvalued against it and so it has turned out to be.

 

When the EU was originally launched as the Common Market it was intended to be a commercial enterprise.  After the collapse of the USSR and the end of the cold war nobody thought much about what would happen next in Eastern Europe but with the revival of Russia and it's increasingly militaristic stance it seemed a good idea to encourage the former Russian satellite states to swap sides and join the West, then any future invasions from or wars in the east of Europe could be fought on their territory, not ours.  Unfortunately that has cost an awful lot of money.  The two aims of the EU, the commercial market to make money and the defence of the West against Russian aggression which costs money are thus mutually incompatible.  Therein lies the impossible position the EU finds itself in.  The arrival of huge numbers from the wars in the Middle East adds another twist, both in cost and racially driven emotion.

 

For the future it is impossible to ignore the fact that companies like JLR are pouring money into their new plant in Slovakia and say they intend building new models there, PSA have bought Vauxhall and since they are already overproducing here in France what do they really intend for Vauxhall, perhaps to kill off the opposition?  Then there is Airbus, BMW, Nissan, Honda, the list is endless.  They didn't all get together and agree to say this and neither is it 'Project Fear', the reality is that we are at the beginning of the Brexit driven downturn and things are slowing down.  This morning's announcement from the SMMT about investment in new models in the UK in the first six months of last year being £647m and this year for the same period being £347m illustrates the extent to which the Government's hopeless management of Brexit is eroding confidence, global businesses are now starting to make decisions to ensure they are as well placed as they can be to survive what looks to be a very difficult period ahead.         

Edited by Madmitch, 26 June 2018 - 10:37 AM.

[Jetpilot]

^^^^ You cannot lay the foot of blame solely at the government, the Eu is certainly playing a huge part in dragging the proceedings out!

Edited by Jetpilot, 26 June 2018 - 10:39 AM.

[jonnyboy]

I would agree really it's not the Governments fault. It's not an easy process and no doubt foot dragging on both sides but we are in dire need of some kind of announcement. 

 

It would be interesting to hear Mike's view from France on what the European view on Brexit is. When I have spoken to people some of them think we have already left and that it's old news they don't even appear to be aware of all the Brussels shenanigans. When we were on holiday recently there was quite a bit of news coverage discussing budget as obviously aqs much as the focus here is on us and what our place in Europe will be we have a reasonable chunk of money that wont be going into their budget and they have probably just an big an argument to have amongst themselves where to pull the funds from or decide what projects to can. 

[C8RKH]

Was this really true?

"The two aims of the EU, the commercial market to make money and the defence of the West against Russian aggression"


I thought the EU was about trade and the creation of wealth and NATO was about the protection of the West!

Hence my issue with a European Army it was not and shoukd not be needed if NATO is a correctly functioning alliance.

Once NATO is usurped by a European Army the US can rightly walk away.

[jonnyboy]

A coalition of states will never take off. I mean look at America. 

 

United States of Europe would have been awesome. 

[Pidgeon]

A coalition of states will never take off. I mean look at America. 

 

United States of Europe would have been awesome. 

 

Ha.  The US is the outcome of a few hundred years of immigrants oppressing the indigenous population, then fighting their colonial oppressors.  The result was then unity from common struggle.  Canada was much the same, but not much unity in the federation - the anglos and francos openly hate each other.

 

What do we have in common with Germany, France, Italy etc?

 

"Two World Wars, one world cup....."

[jonnyboy]

Probably be fighting Russia with them soon  

[Rosssco]

The funny thing is anecdotally from around this area (rich in eastern European folk) an unprecedented amount of them are leaving the UK feeling that they can make a better living back in Poland/Germany. Which is the whole point of the EU. Improve the whole continent and migration would naturally fall back as countries like Poland are dragged up to come closer to the standards we enjoy. They sure didn't get everything right but I hope we come up with the almost inevitable half in half out arrangement but with enough for the flag wavers to be happy with.

 
The whole point of the EU was to essentially prevent a 3rd world war / European conflict by essentially binding its main protagonists so tightly that the idea of conflict would be essentially self-defeating, and subsequently into an eventual federalist super-state. Also as a Western bulwark against the (perception) of Soviet Russia. The expansion east was / is (and it is expansionist, despite being wrapped in nice friendly words, and offering treats rather than threats) convert former Soviet bloc countries into useful allies, and the cynic in me would suggest it also provides cheap labour for economic expansion.

 

Saying all that stuff, I really don't think it has much to do with VX prices This is like one those alarmist 'house price threads' where people get all tetchy because their house hasn't followed some perceived trend they read in the Daily Fail..

[Madmitch]

I would agree really it's not the Governments fault. It's not an easy process and no doubt foot dragging on both sides but we are in dire need of some kind of announcement. 

 

It would be interesting to hear Mike's view from France on what the European view on Brexit is. When I have spoken to people some of them think we have already left and that it's old news they don't even appear to be aware of all the Brussels shenanigans. When we were on holiday recently there was quite a bit of news coverage discussing budget as obviously aqs much as the focus here is on us and what our place in Europe will be we have a reasonable chunk of money that wont be going into their budget and they have probably just an big an argument to have amongst themselves where to pull the funds from or decide what projects to can. 

 

I think it is fair to say that the British Government seems to be completely at sixes and sevens by comparison with the EU people who always appear to have their ducks in a line way ahead.  And yes, there will be foot dragging as you say but for the UK it seems to be because the position is still being argued over whilst for the EU crowd delaying is sometimes a strategic manoeuvre.

 

Regarding the French view of Brexit, it seems to have changed and evolved since the Referendum.  Initially there was a lot of anger, quite often directed straight at any English people who happened to be around.  Now it seems much more like dismay and hurt that we are deserting this project to advance European unity and prosperity.  People are genuinely sorry we are going.  Recently we have attended two meeting arranged by the British Embassy in Paris and the French Govt, in which the French have gone out of their way to point up the way the British have integrated and contributed to French life.  In particular they mentioned the way the British are involved in many cultural areas of French life and also to the way they have restored many crumbling houses bring new life to villages that were dying on their feet.  They really do appreciate that.  On the other hand I have never heard any French person make reference to our financial contribution disappearing although I have heard them grumble about all the same flaws in the EU structure that we grumble about, they would like all of that to change too but the French are not the same as us in many fundamental ways.  They are not people who ask questions, they accept the status quo much more readily which is why they need the British to fight for reform.  They also recognise that Europe with the UK is better able to fight for world trade than without us.  They really believe that in casting off from mainland Europe we are bound for a new but poorer life and that saddens them. 

[PaulCP]

Of course the EU is punishing us over leaving. All the rhetoric, the leaking of private meetings, the bad mouthing threat throwing press interviews are all coming from the EU. The UK has been quite restrained really if you take a cold hard look at it.

.

Exactly!
Barnier & Junker have been very unprofessional at negotiating, almost taking the Corbyn stance of “oppose everything” The UK should have refused to deal with these 2 many months ago due to them make public everything that is discussed and where they didn’t get their own way. In reality they are scared sh!tless in the knowledge that they are the type of person and positions which require reform if the EU is to continue in the way that it was designed.
I voted remain but the actions of these 2 have certainly moved me the other way

[SteveA]

I think a lot of people have the same opinion as you Paul. An analogy I heard was; If you decided to split up with your long term partner and they did their best to make it absolute hell for you, would you really want to stay in that relationship after seeing that side of them?

 

The Guardian often carries the flag for a second referendum but I honestly think the vote would be almost identical to the last time. I don't think anything has changed, those who had axes to grid will still have them, those who were duped into the scams of money for NHS etc will be duped into others. Some will change side due to their understanding of the consequences but others will also switch the other way due to the terrible behaviour of Barnier and Junker.

[Jetpilot]

Good lord its a scary thought that we have another referendum as i agree i dont think it would be much different to the last for the reasons above, even if the students do manage to get over their hangover from Walkabout and drag themselves there. Then what another one because it was close again 

 

Also a vote on the actual deal, please no, just no!!!!

[jonnyboy]

I if you haven't already guessed voted remain but I wouldn't be in favour of another referendum for the same reason I voted remain - the period of instability and uncertainty. The result was totally pointless IMHO it won't change anything for the man on the street but we just need to crack on with it. When we are "out" of the EU we will still be producing straight cucumbers and there will be reasonably free movement of people still. 

[Rosssco]

The Guardian often carries the flag for a second referendum but I honestly think the vote would be almost identical to the last time. I don't think anything has changed, those who had axes to grid will still have them, those who were duped into the scams of money for NHS etc will be duped into others. Some will change side due to their understanding of the consequences but others will also switch the other way due to the terrible behaviour of Barnier and Junker.

 
It's not really a tenable approach going forward, because then who's to say you can't have a 3rd or 4th vote then.. When does it stop once you ignore the original result? Democracy is imperfect (and often retrospectively wrong), but the least worst system we have.

 

Same with voting on "the deal" - so it's rejected and tried again, and again etc. You can't keep everyone happy all the time.

 

Trust me, as a Scot (and sceptical remainer), you really must put this stuff to bed as soon as possible and try and move forward and forget about a second ref for at least the foreseeable future irrespective of how you voted. Up here, north of The Wall, we now live in a local political system that has become completely polarised and ineffective to the real issues because of the lack of acceptance and willingness to move on (despite there being no real shift in opinions or voting intentions). The output is that every economic, social or political change or news story is hijacked and used as cannon fodder by competing sides. The concerns of the average non-VX buying punter on the street is largely ignored as a result..

[jonnyboy]

I would wager low turnout on a second referendum too making the result even less democratic. 

[SteveA]

The protest the other day as a good indication of that. 100,000 people turned up, that's roughly 0.2% of those that voted in the referendum and less that 0.1% of remainers. Time to move on, for better or worse.

[SteveA]

0.5% of remainers

Maths letting me down there