218 replies to this topic

[jonnyboy]

I didn't watch it. I stick by the fact its a Brexit vote so it doesn't really matter what other empty promises and incorrect facts they are both spurting out. It's a single issue election that will be won and lost on that issue. I think that's what explains the LibDem strength in the polls we set up. Labour's position is muddled. Conservative and LibDem are clear.

[coldel]

The polls here are pretty biased and insufficient in their response size though to be fair - and counting up votes is not the same as the proportional representation that will result in the number of MPs each party will get into Parliament come December. The question really is how many people that follow a left wing social ideal are likely to own a VX220 and read online forums, rather than how many people on this forum would vote Labour 

 

I guess Labour are taking the less speedy route as you highlight i.e. crash out or crash back in but they do have a route which is rework and daub red the exit deal and put it to another vote so sitting somewhere in the middle of the other two.

 

FYI I do not intend to vote Labour!

[techieboy]

Huh. We've change our electoral system in the last day or two, too? Fugger me, I missed that.

[coldel]

Huh. We've change our electoral system in the last day or two, too? Fugger me, I missed that.

 

Ha my bad, I rewrote that a couple of times and didn't edit it properly 

 

I was trying to say we don't just total up votes in aggregate to get to the winning party.

 

...I will get my coat 

Edited by coldel, 20 November 2019 - 03:11 PM.

[techieboy]

[PaulCP]

IMHO the poll on here is as good as many that are published.

 

The one just saw was based on a sample of 1606 voters. Usually they don’t publish that it was only based on a small sample just in the same way that they never tell you the age, demographics or cross section of those polled. Any sample less than 50,000 with a cross section that denotes that of the entire electorate is totally meaningless, although probably every one of these polls is meaningless. It’s just the media making news

[Rosssco]

My local MP (wee Kirsty Blackman) turned up at my door the other day asking who I was voting for. Felt bad saying "who ever gets you out of a job", so said Conservative or Libdem.

 

She's likely pretty safe in her seat though, especially as the local Tory got found out for stuff he said a while back

 

https://www.bbc.co.u...reporting-story

 

So I guess I'm voting Labour for the first time in a while (facepalms)

[jonnyboy]

I think there will be some major upset possibly for Labour and The Conservatives. There will be some big names going. Yvette Cooper will be one f the them I reckon. 

[The Batman]

why do i only have 3 votes

[christhegasman]

But he is only trying to force Parliament because it has stubbornly refused to execute the will of the people. So, truly, who's the baddy here then?

You mean the will of the 27% of the people in the country who voted leave? There's democracy at work!

I really don’t give a feck anymore but it the youf had got out of bed off Twater and took the trouble to vote instead of crying after the result we might be in a different position now 😳 don’t moan about the result if you fail to turn up and play kids 😂

[The Batman]

this sounds like such an old persons thing to do.. moan about people moaning

[coldel]

GIven most polls put Labour second, I am not sure how our poll is following the pattern of others given its second last miles behind lib dems? What we have above is an unweighted, high bias sample with no rolling average. If it ties in with conclusions of other things that might have appeared on the internet that is called confirmation bias. The problem with looking at polling on the internet is that many are not totally independent and many are funded by those with vested interests in seeing a particular result.

 

The problem with the 2015 election was that (from memory) the older vote was under weighted in the data sets and didnt predict effectively what came through in the referendum too, the strength of the older/tory/exit vote coming out - as someone highlighted above the younger vote didnt bother - although traditionally younger voters tend not to bother, for the 2015 and Ref they were particularly lazy in getting down to the polling stations - this is why the polling was off for those two votes. This is the difficulty of polling, in that you dont just count who people would vote for, you count other factors such as the likelihood they will actually vote to the likelihood they will change their mind on the day.

 

Anyway, less of the boring stuff. I cannot see anything but a Tory win here, the only potential banana skin is we see an unprecedented young vote turn out - in the same way that the old vote turned out for the referendum which might result in another hung parliament...but otherwise expect a strong old/tory/exit vote again to carry Boris over the line. 

 

 

Edited by coldel, 21 November 2019 - 09:17 AM.

[techieboy]

Well, yesterday's LibDem launch was a bit of a damp squib. Looks like Swinson has finally come to terms with the fact she isn't (ever) going to be PM and the best they can hope for is to fcuk with a few Tory seats in the country and possibly prevent an overall majority. Sounded much more amenable to the idea of a coalition with Labour too - quelle surprise. I still think Ed Davey would have made a better leader of the party. That said, I think Clegg was better still and he unfortunately (and unfairly) got properly stitched up by the coalition government and a stupid electorate that didn't understand the real world when it came to student fees and being in government.

 

Like I said when the 2015 GE came along, I'd have voted for a second Cameron/Clegg coalition where both sides kept the worst policies of the other in check.

 

Let's see what the Labour launch does today and how many more hundreds of billions they'll magic up from this special place where it doesn't count as debt.

 

[slindborg]

Well, yesterday's LibDem launch was a bit of a damp squib.

 

Ohhhh thats why Channel 4 appeared to be stranglewanking themselves over the LD's

 

She cant be PM, her accent is all over the place in a p*ss taking way so any foreign nation would think shes mocking them (its all about the important things)

 

That said, the LD's reckon they will bin brexit... fcuk sakes I'm stuck

[Rosssco]

Like I said when the 2015 GE came along, I'd have voted for a second Cameron/Clegg coalition where both sides kept the worst policies of the other in check.

 
The coalition government of 2010-ish was much maligned, and with good reason given the huge spending cuts brought in at the time, but I think it worked relatively well. Both Cameron and Clegg were pretty much centrists with slightly right / left tendencies and a Blairite polished managerial style, so not surprising they worked relatively well together.

 

I'd vote for that now given the choices on offer   

[coldel]

I agree the coalition, given its a relatively rare event for this country (despite being the norm in Europe) did OK at a time of dealing with global financial meltdown. The Lib Dems kept the Tories in check when they could have strangled everyone with some sense of reality. I saw Clegg speaking with Sarah Olney a couple of years back and he was bewildering, the level these guys are at in terms of bringing the audience along with them (even more skeptical ones like me) was pretty damn impressive. Poor Sarah kind of got sidelined though!

 

I am hoping we get a much better representation of the nation out for this vote, it was heavily skewed for both the 2015 and referendum votes (which is why I always sigh inwardly when anyone says those votes are representative of the will of the people) - if only young people would bloody well vote instead of just holding up placards and complaining post-event! Its much less effort to walk to a polling station than it is to travel to protest marches!

[Jetpilot]

They could even vote by post, it wasnt exactly challenging for them, labelling that lazy is generous in the extreme. 

 

They will vote for whoever offers to scrap tuition fees, in the majority, hardly a choice. All this protesting nonsense was just them jumping on a bandwagon, its frankly laughable imho. 

 

I read this morning that according to stats nearly half of under 50's will vote labour, but any polls ive seen on car forums, i would guess a majority of car forums are under 50, the results are far from that.

[casino]

Corbyn has taken aim at the UK’s oil companies, unveiling a one-off £11bn tax to pay for their contribution to climate change.

Another tank full of 99ron goes up in smoke tonight, for that stupid idea, Comrade Corbyn.

[Denny.G]

Corbyn has taken aim at the UK’s oil companies, unveiling a one-off £11bn tax to pay for their contribution to climate change.

Another tank full of 99ron goes up in smoke tonight, for that stupid idea, Comrade Corbyn.

Are you a climate change denier?

 

The science behind climate change is well established as is the companies who are/have contributed most to global warming.

 

1 China (Coal) 14.32% 2 Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) 4.50% 3 Gazprom OAO 3.91% 4 National Iranian Oil Co 2.28% 5 ExxonMobil Corp 1.98% 6 Coal India 1.87% 7 Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) 1.87% 8 Russia (Coal) 1.86% 9 Royal Dutch Shell PLC 1.67% 10 China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) 1.56% 11 BP PLC 1.53% 12 Chevron Corp 1.31% 13 Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) 1.23% 14 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co 1.20% 15 Poland Coal 1.16% 16 Peabody Energy Corp 1.15% 17 Sonatrach SPA 1.00% 18 Kuwait Petroleum Corp 1.00% 19 Total SA 0.95% 20 BHP Billiton Ltd 0.91% 21 ConocoPhillips 0.91% 22 Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) 0.77% 23 Lukoil OAO 0.75%

It is also well established that the oil companies are playing both ends against the middle - professing publicly to be pursuing renewable energy sources while at the same time the estimated investment they intend to spend in the near future on fossil fuel is in the trillions.  If they won't do what's required voluntarily - and all the indications are that they don't intend to, then an alternative is required.

[Captain Vimes]

This vote is ridiculous and unrepresentative of today’s views. It’s been a week since it opened and I’ve had 24.5 cups of coffee since then. I’ve learnt so much and demand it’s re-run so we get a true understanding of the will of the people.

Batman for PM!