613 replies to this topic

[Ivor]

I can't help feeling that there is something that we are not being told, China said they had a problem really early, or so it appears, and they sequenced the virus really quickly

[casino]

So don’t put the soft top back on and certainly don’t drive topless despite the spring sunshine?

 

 

 

[ianrm]

Just a thought but if SARS would have happened now would the world react in the same way?

[jonnyboy]

18000 lost to the Swine flu which was the last pandemic.

[Madmitch]

Two nuggets from friends in the USofA -

 

What is flying off the shelves at the moment?  Loo roll and guns, the guns are to guard the loo rolls presumably?

And two, the Mexicans are urging Trump to get on and build the wall...……. 

[kipper]

It's a great time to invest, I've just shoved my max yearly amount into my shares ISA this weekend and another 12k into my pension. Within a year that will be +30%, quite possibly more.

Good positive thinking there Nev.....the problem is the timing and it seems like nobody can predict the market. I feel that there are more falls to be seen...its all news driven and until we can see a glimmer of hope when the expenential curve of cases starts to flatten, until then the market is only going one way and I would not be surprised if we see 3,500 on the FTSE 100 over the next coming months.

 

Yep, stick the money in the pension/ISA's but leave it there as cash and keep your powder dry until when you think its a good time to jump back into the market.

 

Actually, there is a pattern emerging for the brave multiday traders, sell mid to late week, buy again on Monday. News (bad) builds up over the weekend and when Monday trading starts, its dive, dive, dive!!

 

Good luck with the timing and if you get it right the recovery will be swift and as the old adage goes "buy when there is blood on the streets".

[Nev]

Yep, I think you are right, I also think the markets have further to fall now. Apparently the Philipines have closed thier stock exchange indefinitely, that might spread to many other exchanges too, which might persist for months even. Unprecidented times, there so much panic (regardless of the question of whether it is waranted or not).

 

I think the markets will bounce back very rapidly once the virus threat/number of cases starts dropping, so chosing the "low point" is going to be hard. Maybe the best policy is to trickle invest whatever one has over the next few months, say 5% every week for instance, at least then you average the best of the low points.

 

Edited by Nev, 18 March 2020 - 09:29 AM.

[paul_mck]

Ill be happy to get out of this with a roof over my head and people around me still breathing. 

[casino]

Ill be happy to get out of this with a roof over my head and people around me still breathing. 

That’s the spirit. 
Wonder how much this will change society once we come out the other side of the tunnel? 

[Nev]

 

Ill be happy to get out of this with a roof over my head and people around me still breathing. 

That’s the spirit. 
Wonder how much this will change society once we come out the other side of the tunnel? 

 

 

Quite a bit I think, at the least you'd think most people would be more germ transfer aware (ie sneezing + coughing over people will be less tollerated).

 

I heard someone on the radio projecting upto a possible 250,000 deaths in the UK - that would be grim and be memorable, seeing as many families would either be directly affected or know of close friends who have had 1+ death.

 

Spanish flu is thought to have killed 20 to 50 million people on the planet afer WW1 (more than the war itself)... the warnings from history are there.
 

Edited by Nev, 18 March 2020 - 11:51 AM.

[Ivor]

I believe total deaths attributable to the virus will be closer to 25,000

[jonnyboy]

Nah China nobody is using the word "peaked" yet but it looks like they are getting somewhere. 

 

Things like the Spanish Flu or even the thing everyone forgets Swine flu in 2009 were much more deadly to the regular population. The death toll was 18000 there I suspect this outbreak will be possibly more than that but not magnitudes more. There's a lot being made at the moment of "modelling" I suspect this will prove to be bollocks in the main. 

 

I think the biggest legacy we will see from this is that when a pandemic comes that really is a threat to the population generally it will bite very hard as people wont take it seriously. This is the first social media pandemic. It's terrible for those affected but another stat worth just mentioning again:

 

Last year we lost 16000 people to Influenza. 16000. 

 

In the USA they expect between 12000 to 60000 deaths per year due to Influenza. Remind me why we are closing the WORLD down? It's crazy. The numbers are very disturbing but I look at them and just think wow this sh*t is going down every winter in much much much bigger numbers and we don't even think about it? Why is this? Ultimately it will only be sorted with a vaccine and at some point there has to be a decision made between the potential risk vs literally all business and people's livelihoods going bye bye. 

 

 

[Ivor]

Nah China nobody is using the word "peaked" yet but it looks like they are getting somewhere.

Things like the Spanish Flu or even the thing everyone forgets Swine flu in 2009 were much more deadly to the regular population. The death toll was 18000 there I suspect this outbreak will be possibly more than that but not magnitudes more. There's a lot being made at the moment of "modelling" I suspect this will prove to be bollocks in the main.

I think the biggest legacy we will see from this is that when a pandemic comes that really is a threat to the population generally it will bite very hard as people wont take it seriously. This is the first social media pandemic. It's terrible for those affected but another stat worth just mentioning again:

Last year we lost 16000 people to Influenza. 16000.

In the USA they expect between 12000 to 60000 deaths per year due to Influenza. Remind me why we are closing the WORLD down? It's crazy. The numbers are very disturbing but I look at them and just think wow this sh*t is going down every winter in much much much bigger numbers and we don't even think about it? Why is this? Ultimately it will only be sorted with a vaccine and at some point there has to be a decision made between the potential risk vs literally all business and people's livelihoods going bye bye.

And there's a vaccine for flu

[alexb]

You might want to read through this: https://www.imperial...ce=articleShare. Expected deaths UK only with no measures: 510,000. With measures: 250,000. 

 

Or this: https://www.sciencem...ret-its-success, why they succeeded to contain the virus in South Korea. And ask yourself the question if your government, or any other in the EU for that matter, is able to show the same drive.

 

If this was the flu and nobody had immunity, things would be far worse. Issue here is that the virus spreads very easily AND nobody has immunity. Both combined mean that a lot of people (up to 70% or higher) get infected, potentially in a very short time. Only a very small part  of those people need medical attention and an even smaller part will die. But even a very small part of those needing medical attention means the health system is totally overwhelmed and chances of survival for people requiring medical attention plummet. In Asia some countries managed to contain the virus by very strict measures combined with massive testing, quarantine etc. More or less the same countries that were affected by SARS and knew how serious this could get. Issue still is how these countries will fare as soon as things open up and the virus starts spreading again.

 

In Europe it seems containment is not an option anymore. That leaves two options: just let it run it's course or delay infections to 'manageable proportions', whatever that means. The above document from the Imperial College gives an excellent summary of what happens in those scenarios and some suggestions about how to operate.

 

So yes, ultimately we will build up immunity, COVID-19 will get a nickname and it will not have a large impact anymore. Issue is getting there without too much drama. 

[hairy]

In Asia some countries managed to contain the virus by very strict measures combined with massive testing, quarantine etc. More or less the same countries that were affected by SARS and knew how serious this could get. Issue still is how these countries will fare as soon as things open up and the virus starts spreading again.

 

Already happening in Asia:

 

https://www.bbc.co.u...d-asia-51955931

 

 

Edited by hairy, 19 March 2020 - 08:48 AM.

[casino]

Whispers ‘ what’s the Chinese for financial compensation?’ 
 

 

[kipper]

Whispers ‘ what’s the Chinese for financial compensation?’

Exactly, nobody yet, but I expect they will when this dies down, the finger of economic blame will be pointing directly at China.... war reparations!!!

[Ivor]

Whispers ‘ what’s the Chinese for financial compensation?’

And while Russia crashed the oil market, communist conspiracy....who needs tanks and guns to defeat the enemy, use simple tactics to bring the capitalist economies to their knees

[Madmitch]

I can't help thinking that there is something very odd going on here, a hidden agenda perhaps. 

 

Why is it that every other developed nation affected by this virus has, after some thought, decided that the best way to deal with it is to shut everything down that is not essential, close schools, forbid people to leave their homes except for food and other essentials, BEFORE the infection spreads through the entire population - except for the UK where you are still free to go to the market, the pub etc etc. 

 

Is it really about herd infection, I think not, that would be just too dangerous UNLESS you really do want the infection to spread.  So why would you actually want to do that?  Has some faceless civil servant calculated that to loose a large number of elderly people would ultimately save a huge amount of money but reducing pension payments and healthcare going forward?  Is it to deflect attention from the fact that nothing is being done with regard to the Brexit negotiations so that ultimately there will be no time left to deal with that issue and that will strengthen the Brit Govs position at the negotiating table or allow a crashout?  Is it that so much expenditure post Brexit has been already promised that to cut costs now will be essential in order to pay for that and keep faith with the people? 

 

I don't know the answer but I just cannot understand how any Government can justify putting so many lives at risk by deliberately following a different path to every other nation and doing so little to enforce measures thought essential everywhere else. 

[jonnyboy]

I honestly don't think humans are organised enough for the conspiracy theories. We are creatures of instinct and organising a mass global conspiracy or  China releasing the virus deliberately etc is science fiction. 

 

There's a couple of reasons we are doing things a bit differently. We are culturally different. We don't kiss eachother all the time thank god! Seems simple but this must the the key transmission in the mwah mwah nations. Being an island will probably help us too. 

 

The other key difference with our culture is in policing. In France as you'll know you need a form to go out. That wouldn't work here as our policing system is by consent. I think most people are being sensible I think we are all certainly mindful. I think Mindful is probably all that is really needed but that's a view that will either be proven right or wrong when the inevitable hang wringing starts. 

 

One bonus...at least another year in the EU! 

Edited by jonnyboy, 20 March 2020 - 09:44 AM.